| Q2: Time Series Analysis Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Value 21 23 20 18 19 23 15 19 21 23 22 24 23 25 a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 15. c. Use α=0.3 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 15. |
d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α=0.3. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?
